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Preparing for Modeling Requirements in Basel II: Model Development :
The Basel II Capital Accord, ready for implementation around 2007, sets out detailed analytic requirements for risk assessment that will be based on data collected by banks throughout the life cycle of the loan. The purpose of Basel II is to introduce a better risk-sensitive capital framework with incentives for good risk management practices. This article, the first in a four part series, will give a managerial overview of statistical modeling - an area of analytics that is paramount to the Basel framework.

Portuguese Version (PART 1) - Credit Technologies
This series was also picked up by an international journal in Brazil called CREDIT TECHNOLOGIES - a publication translating the article in Portuguese side by side with the English version.

An Introduction to Survival Analysis in Business
As the field of credit scoring is focused on predicting 'if' an account will become delinquent over a certain span of time, Survival Analysis can tell us 'when.' Survival Analysis is called different things in different industries: event history analysis, reliability analysis, time to failure, and even duration analysis. The purpose of this article is to give an introduction to the subject with an emphasis on how it can be used in banking and finance.

Preparing for Modeling Requirements in Basel II: Stress Testing
The idea of stress testing should be of interest to banks not only because of Basel, but because developing such approaches can provide the institution with the tools necessary to better manage their capital. This article will introduce a modeling approach called 'Pooled Cross Section Time Series Analysis' that uses aggregated data to predict the impact of economic and portfolio changes on bank default losses.

Forecasting New Product Acceptance
This paper summarizes a step by step procedure for forecasting new product sales from start to finish. Topics include preliminary data analysis, data preparation, basic statistics, hypothesis testing, correlations, regression, dummy variables, transformations, interaction terms, model validation, and forecast simulation.

Modeling Complex Data with Neural Networks
This paper discusses Neural Networks as a prediction tool for probability of default (PD) and recovery (LGD) models. Points of interests include terminology, strengths, weaknesses, and what to look for in a good NN package.

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Thanks for visiting the WORLD OF FORECASTING & my web page. The intent of this site is to promote an understanding of Econometrics and Multivariate Statistics in credit scoring, prospect marketing, and forecasting to the business community. Feel free to send me an email at my new email address: jeffreysmorrison01@comcast.net and let me know what you think.

Author's Comments - Updated 2014! Try out my new Credit Scoring 101 in Excel. This features a host of VBA routines including Logistic Regression which walks the user through the entire credit scoring process with an easy to understand example following best practices. Example data is already loaded in Sheet1, so just press the buttons from left to right at the top of the screen to develop and validate your model.

Also available is my ONLINE ANALYTIC TOOLKIT!
This toolkit has been my pet project for a number of years, but finding a knowledgeable windows (.asp) web hosting provider has been very frustrating. The good news is that "Lunarpages" is now hosting my website and my analytic tools now work like they should - fast and reliable. Please visit the link below to access the new site.
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* Free Online Analytic Toolkit

I encourage the reader to use the on-line software and download my publications listed at the left or to go to my download sections shown below or at the toolbar menu above. Please see my Download Policy before downloading.

Item Description
Lifecast Pro LifeCast Pro Manual
Update to LifeCast Pro Requires original version (.zip)
Trajan Neural Net Neural Net Software
Great Primer on Neural Nets Neural Net Theory
Bass Diffusion Model Bass Model Spreadsheet
Bass Example New Product Case Study
Forecasting Slides New Product Forecasting
Forecasting Terms Dictionary (250k)
Handling Missing Data Handy SAS program
Logit Graphs SAS Program (nice!)
Validating Logit Models SAS Program (nice!)
Validating and Basel Requirements Great Discussion
Tobit Models Estimation in SAS
VB6 / C.A.R.T. S-Plus code generator for CART in VB6
VB6 / SAS Code Calling SAS from VB6
Logit & C.A.R.T. Hybrid Modeling (.ppt)
more... More SAS Downloads
more... More VB6 Downloads



If you're doing New Product Forecasting, then LifeCast Pro can make your job easier. I developed this software myself to forecast the demand for any new product or service. The program uses diffusion theory (logit and gompertz) and regression techniques to forecast demand over time and to rank a prospect list by likelihood of purchase. You can actually do purchase intent modeling with it given you have information from a survey or product trial. In addition, you don't have to have a PhD in statistics to use it nor spend hours learning how to do programming. I designed LifeCast Pro with the average product manager in mind. It has been the software product of choice for big companies and leading colleges like Stanford University for use in their teaching curriculums. You can get the training manual for free in the download section. If you are interested in purchasing the software, I am now offering a discounted price of $49. Simply send me a request by email. Click HERE to download LifeCast Pro, but you must have the password to install the program.



Ordinary Least Squares
Neural Nets
C.A.R.T.
Hypothesis Testing
Cluster Analysis
Factor Analysis
Structural Equation Modeling
Canonical Correlation Analysis
Conjoint Analysis
Almon Lag Estimation
Pooled Cross Sectional Time Series Models
Nonlinear Regression
Probit Regression
Logistic Regression
Tobit Regression
New Product Diffusion Models
State Space Models
ARIMA
State Space Regression
Transfer Function Models
Vector ARIMA



Excellent Statistics Library
Great Statistical Software Links
Basel II- The New Capital Accord
American Marketing Association
Forecast Pro software
Trajan Neural Net
Web Logistic Regression
Institute of Business Forecasting
SHAZAM Econometrics
SAS Documentation
New Product Development Association
S-Plus Software (free demo version)
ARCVIEW (Spatial Mapping)
Free Econometric Software
Economic Service Providers
Sample Bias Correction Methods
SAS Time / Date Functions


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Count Your Blessings!
Compassion International
Probe Ministries
Hear Excellent Bible Teaching
Some Answers to tough questions
The Alpha and Omega
My Father's Near Death Experience

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